Donald Trump finally won the popular vote for the first time in his third run during the historic and riveting 2024 presidential election, which resulted in his return to the White House as the 47th U.S. President. In the 2016 election, despite winning the electoral vote and becoming the 45th U.S. President, 46.1 percent of voters supported him, while his opponent, Hillary Clinton, received 48.2 percent. Furthermore, in the 2020 election, in addition to losing to Joe Biden in the electoral vote, his share of the popular vote was 46.8 percent, compared to the 51.3 percent won by the Democratic ticket of Biden and Harris.
The winning Republican ticket of Trump and J.D. Vance secured about 77.302 million votes. This accounted for 49.8 percent of voters who went to the ballots. The Democratic ticket of Harris and Tim Walz got 75,017 million votes or 48.3 percent of voters. Hence, building on its popular vote performance, the Trump administration has claimed it has a strong mandate. This is far from the truth since the Trump-Vance tandem was only 1.5 percent higher than the Harris-Walz tandem. Furthermore, less than three months after Trump was sworn into office, recent polls suggest that his popularity is gradually waning.
Latest Polls on Donald Trump and Critical Issues Faced by the Trump Administration
Recent Approval Ratings
An analysis by E. J. Dionne, Jr. and Max Keeney of The Brookings Institution noted that nearly all surveys show that support for Trump was no higher than the almost 50 percent of the popular votes he secured in the 2024 election. Data from The Washington Post and Ipsos from 13 to 18 February 2025 showed 51 percent of registered voters disapproved of him while data from CNN from February 13 to 17 showed 54 percent disapproval.
The separate polling data from Emerson Polling and The Economist-YouGov Research showed higher approval ratings from registered voters at 48 percent. The specific Emerson data showed a 46 percent disapproval rate while data from The Economist-YouGov showed a 47 percent disapproval rating. However, despite higher approval ratings from both pollsters, the data are still indicative of the fact that the support for Trump was still not above 50 percent.
Results from The Center for American Political Studies at Harvard University and The Harris Poll are more favorable to the Trump administration. Data showed a 52 percent approval rating and 43 percent disapproval rating from registered voters. However, according to The Brooking Institution, Harvard-Harris is often seen as Republican-leaning. Most of the sources of polling data still indicate that Trump has an approval rating of below 50 percent.
The interactive visual data maintained by The Economist and YouGov Research demonstrates that the Trump administration started on a high note. The increase in popularity was a considerable leap from the previous Biden administration. However, at the end of the first month of 2025, the trend line is gradually declining. Specific net favorability data for 9 March 2025 showed that 46 percent were favorable of Trump while 50 percent were unfavorable.
It is still too early to tell whether or not Trump is losing popularity. There are also other polls from smaller groups showing that he has either maintained his favorability or has been experiencing a gradual decline. However, considering the recent issues faced by his administration, more drastic changes in his approval rating are possible. Note that the end of his first term in 2020 marked a substantial decline due to his handling of the coronavirus pandemic.
Critical Approval Issues
The Trump administration has to either resolve or sidestep from pressing and emerging issues. The most notable ones are concerns over the short-term economic direction of the U.S. Remember that inflation was the main point of the previous Biden administration while economic downturns unfavorably redefined the first-term Trump administration. The following are all critical issues that can affect the popularity and approval rating of Donald Trump:
• Economic Concerns: Egg prices are high. Tariffs are threatening to raise prices further and accelerate inflation. Some economists are worried about the current direction of the U.S. economy due to early signs of a recession. Americans are worried about inflation and job security according to a January 2025 survey.
• Alleged Russian Link: Trump has been alleged a Russian asset. There is no conclusive evidence directly linking Trump with Vladimir Putin but ongoing discussions about these associations will influence public opinion. Americans are sensitive and concerned about the possible influence of Russia on U.S. politics.
• Foreign Policy Shifts: Orders or policies that seem to alienate the country from the established world order can also be a deciding factor. Trump has ended intelligence aid to Ukraine, strengthened its relationship with Israel, and distanced the U.S. from the World Health Organization and Paris Climate Accord.
• Elon Musk Criticisms: Prominent Trump ally Elon Musk has faced several criticisms that can alienate even the Republican base of Trump. Several Trump voters have been critical of his pro-immigration stance, attention-grabbing posturing, and his orders to fire hundreds of federal employees and cut federal funding.
• Controversial Figures: The past and current associations of Trump with controversial figures like financier Jeffrey Epstein, who was convicted of sex trafficking, and social media personality Andrew Tate, who is under investigation for human trafficking, serve as a litmus test to the values of conservative voters.
Nevertheless, from the aforesaid critical issues, data from The Economist and YouGov Research indicate that the status of the U.S. economy is the most pressing issue at 35 percent. Health care is at 12 percent while immigration is only at 9 percent. Both Democrats and Republicans are most sensitive to issues related to prices or inflation rates. This is followed by concerns over employment security and taxes and government spending.
Musk can also impact the popularity of Trump. His role as the supposed advisor of the Department of Government Efficiency or DOGE is starting to impact his own popularity. Even the stock price of Tesla has taken a considerable hit. Several Republican voters and Trump supporters have voiced their strong opinions online against Musk because his aggressive reign at DOGE has affected their government careers or the careers of someone they know.
Another poll from The Economist and YouGov Research found that the majority of the nearly 1600 respondents had favorable views toward agencies like the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, the Environmental Protection Agency, and the United States Agency for International Development or USAID. Musk and his DOGE team have gutted the funding and human resources of these agencies and their programs for alleged inefficiencies.
The popularity of Trump hangs by a thread. His core support from the general Republican base remains strong but pressing issues can impact his approval ratings in the coming months. Low approval ratings can embolden not only Democratic legislators but also those from the Republican Party to hinder the passage of legislation and stall policy initiatives while also affecting the midterm election performance of Republican candidates.
FURTHER READINGS AND REFERENCES
- Dionne, E. J., Jr. and Keeney, M. 3 March 2025. “Trump’s First 5 Weeks in the Polls.” The Brookings Institution. Available online
- Ivanova, I. 21 February 2025. “Americans Now View Elon Musk and DOGE Far Less Favorably than the Programs DOGE is Slashing, Poll Shows.” Fortune. Available online
- The Economist and YouGov Research. 2025. “How Popular is Donald Trump?” The Economist. Available online